Stupid analyst tricks

A JP Morgan analyst predicts a Nano-like iPhone is coming in short order.

Kevin Chang, a JP Morgan analyst based in Taiwan, cited people in the supply channel he did not name and an application with the U.S Patent and Trademark office for his report dated July 8.

Probably not this year. Apple is going to capture all the $600 phone buyers before releasing a cheaper alternative. That’s just good business (you know… that thing analysts often forget about maximizing profits). Anyway Apple took longer than a few months before releasing cheap iPod Minis.

Anyway, that’s not the best part of the article. For the most part, Chang talked the talk pretty well. Good for a B+ in a first year MBA program.

Later in the same article:

Another analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray said he expects Apple to bring out iPods that resemble iPhone, which features such as a touch-sensitive screen, later this year. Such products would help stop iPhone eating into iPod sales.

“We believe the iPhone reveals much of what the iPod will soon be,” Munster said in a note to clients, “iPods with some of the touchscreen features of the iPhone should lessen the impact of cannibalization.”

That has to be a joke. Cannibalization? I don’t think so. If the iPhone was less profitable than the iPod, cannibalization would be a concern. It’s not. Apple wants people to spend $600 instead of $350. Mr. Munster, that’s called upselling and it’s a good thing.

How did this get past the business editor? Does Munster think Toyota is fretting over Lexus cannibalizing Yaris sales?

Now Piper Jaffray has become a favorite target of mine. I came across absolute gem of an analysis post-NAB from my buddies at PJ. They surveyed a whopping 161 post production professionals, had the nerve to call it the most comprehensive survey to date in the industry, and then declared that from this small sample at HPA (pretty high end and small sliver of the video industry) that less than 6% of Avid users were considering Apple.

It’s been my experience communicating with well over 161 professionals that at least 70% of Avid usders are considering a switch to Apple, with about a third of those being likely to pull the trigger this year or next. And for the record, tiny Xprove, bootstrapped by three middle-class entrepreneurs surveyed a more exhaustive sample of video professionals before launching our company.

You too can become an analyst. Say anything, get paid.

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